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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 30

Green Bay Packers 20 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34

What Actually Happened

(4:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at TB 49 for -19 yards (sack split by 7-S.Barrett and 54-L.David). FUMBLES (7-S.Barrett) [54-L.David], RECOVERED by TB-90-L.Hall at GB 49. 90-L.Hall to GB 49 for no gain (63-R.Walker).

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.19 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.76 EP