Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q1
Green Bay Packers
4th & 2 at the 4
Green Bay Packers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3
What Actually Happened
(2:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 11-J.Reed.
The Three Options
GO
+3.67 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.31 EP
- 45% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 4, worth +0.46 EP
KICK
+2.20 EP
- 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT
+0.12 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
