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HC Sean McDermott
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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2023-12-10 · 16:25 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.0 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

BUF
46.6%
KC
53.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • BUF on 7 more days rest than KC
  • KC offense: +0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.144 vs Josh Allen (BUF) +0.189 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

BUF 24
–
KC 25
Projected margin: KC by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

BUF

Kaiir Elam CB Questionable Ankle
Dawson Knox TE Questionable Wrist

KC

Bryan Cook S Out Ankle
Isiah Pacheco RB Out Shoulder
Donovan Smith T Out Neck
Drue Tranquill LB Out Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 20
–
KC 17

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:48 TD BUF (3:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – KC 0
  • Q2 11:58 TD BUF (11:58) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 13 – KC 0
  • Q2 01:26 TD KC (1:26) (Shotgun) 1-J.McKinnon left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 14 – KC 6
  • Q3 08:41 FG BUF (8:41) 2-T.Bass 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. BUF 17 – KC 7
  • Q3 03:34 TD KC (3:34) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 4-R.Rice for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 17 – KC 13
  • Q4 11:33 FG KC (11:33) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. BUF 17 – KC 17
  • Q4 01:57 FG BUF (1:57) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. BUF 20 – KC 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 9 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 57%

    (9:50) 8-S.Martin punts 32 yards to KC 8, impetus ends at KC 5, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 17-R.James to KC 12 for 4 yards (20-T.Rapp).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 14 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:17) 5-T.Townsend punts 39 yards to BUF 38, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-D.Harty to BUF 47 for 9 yards (54-L.Chenal).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (2:26) 5-T.Townsend punts 46 yards to BUF 27, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 1 at the 14
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 95%

    (13:24) 76-D.Edwards reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short right to 86-D.Kincaid to KC 10 for 4 yards (54-L.Chenal).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 12 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 59%

    (8:36) 5-T.Townsend punts 32 yards to BUF 7, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-40-E.Boye-Doe.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 7 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 96%

    (8:41) 2-T.Bass 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 3 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (1:59) 8-S.Martin punts 61 yards to KC 6, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 17-R.James to KC 26 for 20 yards (39-C.Lewis).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 18 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (15:00) 8-S.Martin punts 40 yards to KC 16, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 17-R.James pushed ob at KC 41 for 25 yards (54-B.Spector).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 8 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (11:33) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 7 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (7:05) 5-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to BUF 23, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-D.Harty to BUF 31 for 8 yards (43-J.Cochrane).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 9 at the 21 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 91%

    (1:57) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 15 at the 54 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:01) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 87-T.Kelce [56-L.Floyd].