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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 67

Buffalo Bills 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(1:59) 8-S.Martin punts 61 yards to KC 6, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 17-R.James to KC 26 for 20 yards (39-C.Lewis).

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.76 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 67, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 25, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP