Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 66

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Buffalo Bills 17

(7:05) 5-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to BUF 23, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-D.Harty to BUF 31 for 8 yards (43-J.Cochrane).

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.79 EP
58% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 66, worth -3.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model