Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 73

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

(2:26) 5-T.Townsend punts 46 yards to BUF 27, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.99 EP
60% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 73, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model