Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 14 at the 77

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

(7:17) 5-T.Townsend punts 39 yards to BUF 38, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-D.Harty to BUF 47 for 9 yards (54-L.Chenal).

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.20 EP
68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 77, worth -4.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model