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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 12 at the 39

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(8:36) 5-T.Townsend punts 32 yards to BUF 7, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-40-E.Boye-Doe.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.34 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 39, worth -1.95 EP
KICK -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 48, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.48 EP