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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
Sunday 2023-11-26 · 16:25 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 🌧 Rain Spread 2.5 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

BUF
44.5%
PHI
55.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.110 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • PHI offense: +0.120 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.126 vs Josh Allen (BUF) +0.172 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

BUF 23
–
PHI 25
Projected margin: PHI by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

BUF

Dane Jackson CB Out Concussion
Taylor Rapp S Out Neck

PHI

Grant Calcaterra TE Out Ankle
Justin Evans S Out Knee
Dallas Goedert TE Out Forearm
Milton Williams DT Out Concussion
Quez Watkins WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 34
–
PHI 37

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:09 TD PHI (1:09) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – PHI 6
  • Q2 11:27 FG BUF (11:27) 2-T.Bass 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. BUF 3 – PHI 7
  • Q2 08:40 TD BUF (8:40) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 9 – PHI 7
  • Q2 00:21 TD BUF (:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 16 – PHI 7
  • Q3 07:17 TD PHI (7:17) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 17 – PHI 13
  • Q3 01:48 TD BUF (1:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF-14-S.Diggs was injured during the play. BUF 23 – PHI 14
  • Q4 13:42 TD PHI (13:42) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 6-D.Smith for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 24 – PHI 20
  • Q4 11:18 TD PHI (11:18) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 13-O.Zaccheaus for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 24 – PHI 27
  • Q4 01:55 TD BUF (1:55) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 13-G.Davis for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 30 – PHI 28
  • Q4 00:25 FG PHI (:25) 4-J.Elliott 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. BUF 31 – PHI 31
  • Q5 05:56 FG BUF (5:56) 2-T.Bass 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. BUF 34 – PHI 31
  • Q5 02:41 TD PHI (2:41) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts left guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 34 – PHI 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (13:15) 8-S.Martin punts 49 yards to PHI 18, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 10 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:45) 10-B.Mann punts 59 yards to BUF 23, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-K.Shakir to BUF 32 for 9 yards (21-S.Brown).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 1 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 37%

    (10:04) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen up the middle to PHI 46 for 1 yard (41-N.Morrow).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 16 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 56%

    (6:45) 8-S.Martin punts 28 yards to PHI 12, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 18-B.Covey. PENALTY on BUF-33-S.Neal, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 12.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 7 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 79%

    (11:27) 2-T.Bass 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (6:57) 10-B.Mann punts 51 yards to BUF 10, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-K.Shakir to BUF 20 for 10 yards (21-S.Brown). PENALTY on BUF-54-B.Spector, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 10.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 8 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (4:27) 8-S.Martin punts 40 yards to PHI 19, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (2:20) 10-B.Mann punts 53 yards to BUF 23, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at BUF 33 for 10 yards (53-C.Elliss).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 16 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 94%

    (1:27) 2-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-J.Carter), Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:41) 10-B.Mann punts 58 yards to BUF 21, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-K.Shakir MUFFS catch, and recovers at BUF 22. 10-K.Shakir to BUF 31 for 9 yards (28-J.Jobe).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 10 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 79%

    (10:36) 2-T.Bass 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 7 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (7:15) 10-B.Mann punts 48 yards to BUF 17, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-K.Shakir to BUF 26 for 9 yards (48-P.Johnson).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 17 at the 41 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 53%

    (:25) 4-J.Elliott 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.