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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 30

Buffalo Bills 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(10:36) 2-T.Bass 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.53 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 40, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model