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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 16 at the 16

Buffalo Bills 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(1:27) 2-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-J.Carter), Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.83 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 16, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model