4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 76

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(2:20) 10-B.Mann punts 53 yards to BUF 23, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at BUF 33 for 10 yards (53-C.Elliss).

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.46 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 76, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 34, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model