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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 61

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(6:57) 10-B.Mann punts 51 yards to BUF 10, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-K.Shakir to BUF 20 for 10 yards (21-S.Brown). PENALTY on BUF-54-B.Spector, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 10.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.48 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 61, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 20, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model