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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 16 at the 40

Buffalo Bills 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(6:45) 8-S.Martin punts 28 yards to PHI 12, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 18-B.Covey. PENALTY on BUF-33-S.Neal, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 12.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.23 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 40, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model