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New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
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IND Home

Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
Sunday 2023-10-29 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

NO
42.9%
IND
57.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: -0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • NO defense: -0.144 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Derek Carr (NO): -0.039 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NO on 3 more days rest than IND
  • IND offense: -0.023 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 20
–
IND 22
Projected margin: IND by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

NO

James Hurst T Out Ankle
Michael Thomas WR Questionable Illness
Marcus Maye S Questionable Illness
Juwan Johnson TE Questionable Calf
Tyrann Mathieu S Questionable Foot
Demario Davis LB Questionable Knee
Max Garcia G Questionable Illness
Jimmy Graham TE Questionable Illness
J.T. Gray S Questionable Hamstring
Taysom Hill QB Questionable Chest
Andrus Peat G Questionable Ankle
Alontae Taylor CB Questionable Hip

IND

Julius Brents CB Out Quadricep
Braden Smith T Out Hip
Kylen Granson TE Out Concussion
Tony Brown CB Questionable Ribs
Zack Moss RB Questionable Elbow
Eric Johnson DT Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 38
–
IND 27

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:02 TD IND (7:02) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 11-M.Pittman for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – IND 6
  • Q1 03:50 TD NO (3:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 41-A.Kamara for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – IND 7
  • Q2 14:52 FG IND (14:52) 7-M.Gay 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. NO 7 – IND 10
  • Q2 11:42 TD IND (11:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-Z.Moss up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 7 – IND 16
  • Q2 07:35 TD NO (7:35) (Shotgun) 67-L.Young reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill up the middle for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND-44-Z.Franklin was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. 7-T.Hill in at QB for NO. NO 13 – IND 17
  • Q2 05:50 TD NO (5:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 20 – IND 17
  • Q2 00:26 FG IND (:26) 7-M.Gay 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. NO 21 – IND 20
  • Q3 00:12 TD NO (:12) 41-A.Kamara up the middle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 27 – IND 20
  • Q4 10:53 TD NO (10:53) (Shotgun) 67-L.Young, 70-T.Penning and 99-K.Saunders reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. 7-T.Hill in at QB for NO. NO 34 – IND 20
  • Q4 08:29 TD IND (8:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep right to 85-A.Ogletree for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 35 – IND 26
  • Q4 00:28 FG NO (:28) 19-B.Grupe 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley. NO 38 – IND 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (13:31) 8-R.Sanchez punts 52 yards to NO 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 25 for 8 yards (43-T.Denbow, 85-A.Ogletree).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 4 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 31%

    (11:22) 39-L.Hedley punts 33 yards to IND 19, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 6-I.McKenzie.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 10
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 97%

    (7:02) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 11-M.Pittman for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.06 EP
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 99%

    (14:52) 7-M.Gay 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (6:37) 8-R.Sanchez punts 57 yards to NO 23, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 37 for 14 yards (50-S.Olubi, 85-A.Ogletree).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 89%

    (:26) 7-M.Gay 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 3 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (11:54) 39-L.Hedley punts 42 yards to IND 14, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 6-I.McKenzie.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 4 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (9:34) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to NO 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 42 for 15 yards (35-C.Lammons).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 6 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 63%

    (7:31) 39-L.Hedley punts 36 yards to IND 3, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-27-I.Yiadom.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (14:55) 8-R.Sanchez punts 56 yards to NO 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 24 for 9 yards (41-G.Stuard).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 5 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (5:31) 39-L.Hedley punts 47 yards to IND 9, Center-49-Z.Wood. 6-I.McKenzie to IND 16 for 7 yards (48-J.Gray).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 73 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:55) 8-R.Sanchez punts 40 yards to NO 33, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 9 at the 9 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (:28) 19-B.Grupe 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.