Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 15 at the 80

Indianapolis Colts 17 – New Orleans Saints 14

(6:37) 8-R.Sanchez punts 57 yards to NO 23, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 37 for 14 yards (50-S.Olubi, 85-A.Ogletree).

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.00 EP
71% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 80, worth -4.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model