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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 56

New Orleans Saints 35 – Indianapolis Colts 27

What Actually Happened

(5:31) 39-L.Hedley punts 47 yards to IND 9, Center-49-Z.Wood. 6-I.McKenzie to IND 16 for 7 yards (48-J.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.24 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 56, worth -2.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 17, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model