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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 9

New Orleans Saints 35 – Indianapolis Colts 27

What Actually Happened

(:28) 19-B.Grupe 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

The Three Options

GO +1.95 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.76 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 9, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.79 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.15 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model