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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 10

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(7:02) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 11-M.Pittman for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.51 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 10, worth +0.46 EP
KICK +2.38 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model