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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 52

New Orleans Saints 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(11:22) 39-L.Hedley punts 33 yards to IND 19, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 6-I.McKenzie.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.61 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 52, worth -3.20 EP
KICK -1.68 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -3.14 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 15, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model