4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
CLE Away

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2023-10-29 · 16:05 Lumen Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

CLE
35.2%
SEA
64.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.110 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • CLE defense: -0.186 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to SEA: Geno Smith (SEA) -0.054 vs Phillip Walker (CLE) -0.206 EPA/dropback (CLE starting Phillip Walker in place of Deshaun Watson)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 21
–
SEA 24
Projected margin: SEA by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

CLE

Deshaun Watson QB Out right Shoulder
Jerome Ford RB Questionable Ankle
Marquise Goodwin WR Questionable Back
Sione Takitaki LB Questionable Hamstring
Jedrick Wills T Questionable Foot

SEA

Austin Faoliu DT Out Knee
Kenny McIntosh RB Out Knee
Phil Haynes G Doubtful Calf
Jamal Adams S Questionable Knee
Tyler Lockett WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 20
–
SEA 24

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:56 TD SEA (8:56) 19-J.Bobo right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – SEA 6
  • Q1 05:37 TD SEA (5:37) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 16-T.Lockett for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – SEA 13
  • Q1 03:30 TD CLE (3:30) (Shotgun) 10-P.Walker pass short middle to 85-D.Njoku for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-J.Brooks]. CLE 6 – SEA 14
  • Q1 01:02 FG SEA (1:02) 5-J.Myers 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. CLE 7 – SEA 17
  • Q2 04:42 TD CLE (4:42) 66-J.Hudson and 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 27-K.Hunt right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 13 – SEA 17
  • Q3 07:33 FG CLE (7:33) 7-D.Hopkins 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 17 – SEA 17
  • Q3 02:53 FG CLE (2:53) 7-D.Hopkins 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 20 – SEA 17
  • Q4 00:44 TD SEA (:44) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 20 – SEA 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (13:00) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 54 yards to SEA 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 32 for 13 yards (40-M.Adams; 42-T.Fields). PENALTY on SEA-1-D.Eskridge, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 30.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 11 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (1:02) 5-J.Myers 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 6 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (10:09) 4-M.Dickson punts 60 yards to CLE 20, Center-41-C.Stoll. 8-E.Moore ran ob at CLE 33 for 13 yards (30-M.Jackson).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:26) 4-M.Dickson punts 61 yards to CLE 12, Center-41-C.Stoll. 8-E.Moore to CLE 22 for 10 yards (38-B.Russell). CLE-42-T.Fields was injured during the play.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 12 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:51) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 59 yards to SEA 21, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 25 for 4 yards (28-M.Ford).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 2 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 72%

    (:45) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 14-D.Metcalf to CLE 27 for 7 yards (23-M.Emerson) [94-D.Tomlinson].

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (13:28) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to CLE 10, Center-41-C.Stoll. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 17 for 7 yards (58-D.Hall).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 3 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (7:33) 7-D.Hopkins 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 5 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 97%

    (2:53) 7-D.Hopkins 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (1:31) 4-M.Dickson punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 4 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 58%

    (10:49) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 29 yards to SEA 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 17 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 40%

    (5:57) 4-M.Dickson punts 36 yards to CLE 11, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-44-N.Bellore.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 19 at the 84 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.26 EP
    p(convert) 26%

    (:22) (Shotgun) 10-P.Walker pass incomplete deep left to 85-D.Njoku.