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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 13

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(1:02) 5-J.Myers 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.32 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 13, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 23, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model