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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 67

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(1:31) 4-M.Dickson punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 67, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 25, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP