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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 73

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(3:26) 4-M.Dickson punts 61 yards to CLE 12, Center-41-C.Stoll. 8-E.Moore to CLE 22 for 10 yards (38-B.Russell). CLE-42-T.Fields was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.60 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 73, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 31, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model