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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 9

Cleveland Browns 17 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(2:53) 7-D.Hopkins 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +2.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.93 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 9, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP