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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 34

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(:45) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 14-D.Metcalf to CLE 27 for 7 yards (23-M.Emerson) [94-D.Tomlinson].

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.56 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 34, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
  • 72% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 44, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model