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Las Vegas Raiders

HC Josh McDaniels
@
CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC Matt Eberflus
Sunday 2023-10-22 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 38.5

Win Probability

LV
83.1%
CHI
16.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to LV: Tyson Bagent (CHI) -1.106 vs Brian Hoyer (LV) +0.475 EPA/dropback (CHI starting Tyson Bagent in place of Justin Fields; LV starting Brian Hoyer in place of Jimmy Garoppolo)
  • CHI offense: -0.123 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • CHI defense: +0.118 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.141 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • LV offense: -0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • Tyson Bagent (CHI) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

LV 26
–
CHI 17
Projected margin: LV by 9 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

LV

Jakorian Bennett CB Out Shoulder
Jimmy Garoppolo QB Out Back
Nate Hobbs CB Out Ankle

CHI

Nate Davis G Out Ankle
Justin Fields QB Out right Thumb
Eddie Jackson S Out Foot
Roschon Johnson RB Out Concussion
Terell Smith CB Out Illness
Darnell Wright T Questionable Shoulder
Jaquan Brisker S Questionable Groin
Dan Feeney C Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 12
–
CHI 30

Prediction missed by 27 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:49 TD CHI (3:49) 21-D.Foreman left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 0 – CHI 6
  • Q2 07:35 TD CHI (7:35) (Shotgun) 21-D.Foreman left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 0 – CHI 13
  • Q2 01:52 FG LV (1:52) 2-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 3 – CHI 14
  • Q3 04:09 TD CHI (4:09) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short right to 21-D.Foreman for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 3 – CHI 20
  • Q4 12:24 FG LV (12:24) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 6 – CHI 21
  • Q4 05:51 FG CHI (5:51) 8-C.Santos 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. LV 6 – CHI 24
  • Q4 05:46 TD CHI (5:46) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass short left intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 33-J.Johnson at LV 39. 33-J.Johnson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 6 – CHI 30
  • Q4 01:14 TD LV (1:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short right to 16-J.Meyers for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 12 – CHI 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:38) 16-T.Gill punts 47 yards to LV 25, Center-48-P.Scales. 3-D.Carter pushed ob at LV 43 for 18 yards (55-D.Cole).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 4 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 88%

    (10:12) 2-D.Carlson 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 5 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 36%

    (:48) 6-A.Cole punts 39 yards to CHI 8, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (11:14) 16-T.Gill punts 43 yards to LV 23, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-20-T.Homer.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 6 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 90%

    (1:52) 2-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 17 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (:02) (Shotgun) 14-N.Peterman sacked at CHI 41 for -5 yards (9-T.Wilson). FUMBLES (9-T.Wilson) [9-T.Wilson], ball out of bounds at CHI 41.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (12:27) 6-A.Cole punts 43 yards to CHI 12, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 97%

    (14:12) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass short left to 17-D.Adams ran ob at CHI 5 for 4 yards.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (12:24) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 18 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 65%

    (5:51) 8-C.Santos 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 73 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (4:44) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow pushed ob at LV 36 for 9 yards (22-E.Hicks).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (3:38) 16-T.Gill punts 30 yards to LV 40, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.