Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 66

Chicago Bears 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

(11:14) 16-T.Gill punts 43 yards to LV 23, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-20-T.Homer.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.34 EP
57% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model