Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 73

Las Vegas Raiders 6 – Chicago Bears 30

(4:44) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow pushed ob at LV 36 for 9 yards (22-E.Hicks).

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP

What Happened

52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.27 EP
48% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 73, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model