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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 55

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(12:27) 6-A.Cole punts 43 yards to CHI 12, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.87 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 55, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 16, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model