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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 21

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 2-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.79 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 31, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model