Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 17 at the 54

Chicago Bears 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

(:02) (Shotgun) 14-N.Peterman sacked at CHI 41 for -5 yards (9-T.Wilson). FUMBLES (9-T.Wilson) [9-T.Wilson], ball out of bounds at CHI 41.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP

What Happened

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +1.75 EP
74% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 54, worth -0.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model