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Carolina Panthers

HC Frank Reich
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Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
Sunday 2023-10-15 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US ☀️ Clear Spread 14.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

CAR
23.4%
MIA
76.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +0.208 vs Bryce Young (CAR) -0.222 EPA/dropback
  • MIA offense: +0.104 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • CAR offense: -0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • CAR defense: +0.056 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CAR 17
–
MIA 26
Projected margin: MIA by 9 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

CAR

Vonn Bell S Out Quadricep
Giovanni Ricci TE Out Shoulder
Miles Sanders RB Out Shoulder
Xavier Woods S Out Hamstring
Chandler Zavala G Out Neck
Austin Corbett G Out Knee
Brian Burns LB Questionable Ankle
Stephen Sullivan TE Questionable Hip
Derrick Brown DE Questionable Knee
Ian Thomas TE Questionable Calf

MIA

Connor Williams C Out Groin
Nik Needham CB Doubtful Achilles
Jeffery Wilson RB Doubtful Ribs
Alec Ingold FB Questionable Foot
Robert Jones G Questionable Knee
Jaelan Phillips LB Questionable Oblique

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 21
–
MIA 42

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:18 TD CAR (7:18) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-55-J.Baker, Defensive Offside, declined. CAR 6 – MIA 0
  • Q1 00:09 TD CAR (:09) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 19-A.Thielen for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 13 – MIA 0
  • Q2 11:19 TD MIA (11:19) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 31-R.Mostert for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 14 – MIA 6
  • Q2 07:07 TD MIA (7:07) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 17-J.Waddle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 14 – MIA 13
  • Q2 02:00 TD MIA (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIA-10-T.Hill, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. CAR 14 – MIA 20
  • Q3 06:25 TD MIA (6:25) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 14 – MIA 27
  • Q4 12:27 TD MIA (12:27) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 14 – MIA 34
  • Q4 04:37 TD CAR (4:37) (Shotgun) 14-M.White pass short right intended for 26-S.Ahmed INTERCEPTED by 13-T.Hill at CAR 39. 13-T.Hill for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 20 – MIA 35
  • Q4 02:38 TD MIA (2:38) 26-S.Ahmed right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 21 – MIA 41

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (13:15) 10-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to MIA 26, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 4 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (11:15) 16-J.Bailey punts 43 yards to CAR 25, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 36 for 11 yards (53-C.Goode).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:39) 16-J.Bailey punts 60 yards to CAR 16, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 11-I.Smith-Marsette pushed ob at CAR 26 for 10 yards (20-J.Bethel).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 8 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 24%

    (8:27) (Punt formation) 10-J.Hekker pass short right to 5-L.Shenault pushed ob at MIA 44 for 7 yards (45-D.Riley; 22-E.Campbell). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (5:09) 10-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to MIA 28, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 2 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 85%

    (:02) 4-E.Pineiro 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:47) 16-J.Bailey punts 45 yards to CAR 30, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 15 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (11:40) 10-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to MIA 9, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 24
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 86%

    (2:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right to 81-H.Hurst.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 12 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (7:38) 16-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to CAR 8, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-20-J.Bethel.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 60 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:57) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 88-T.Marshall [15-J.Phillips].

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 4 at the 69 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (1:56) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short middle.