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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 68

Miami Dolphins 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:15) 16-J.Bailey punts 43 yards to CAR 25, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 36 for 11 yards (53-C.Goode).

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.27 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 26, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model