4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 24

Carolina Panthers 14 – Miami Dolphins 28

What Actually Happened

(2:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right to 81-H.Hurst.

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.42 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 34, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model