Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 76

Miami Dolphins 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

(5:39) 16-J.Bailey punts 60 yards to CAR 16, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 11-I.Smith-Marsette pushed ob at CAR 26 for 10 yards (20-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.93 EP
63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model