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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 51

Carolina Panthers 14 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(8:27) (Punt formation) 10-J.Hekker pass short right to 5-L.Shenault pushed ob at MIA 44 for 7 yards (45-D.Riley; 22-E.Campbell). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.91 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 51, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.81 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model