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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 25

Carolina Panthers 14 – Miami Dolphins 21

What Actually Happened

(:02) 4-E.Pineiro 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +2.56 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 35, worth -0.10 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model