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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
Sunday 2023-10-08 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US ☀️ Clear Spread 12.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

NYG
24.1%
MIA
75.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +0.270 vs Daniel Jones (NYG) -0.115 EPA/dropback
  • NYG offense: -0.068 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • MIA offense: +0.080 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.090 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 20
–
MIA 28
Projected margin: MIA by 8 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

NYG

Shane Lemieux G Out Groin
John Michael Schmitz C Out Shoulder
Andrew Thomas T Out Hamstring
Saquon Barkley RB Questionable Ankle
Daniel Bellinger TE Questionable Knee
Micah McFadden LB Questionable Ankle

MIA

Robert Jones G Out Knee
Nik Needham CB Out Achilles
Lester Cotton G Questionable Ankle
Jaelan Phillips LB Questionable Oblique
Connor Williams C Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 16
–
MIA 31

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:16 TD MIA (7:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 17-J.Waddle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – MIA 6
  • Q2 10:12 TD MIA (10:12) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane left tackle for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – MIA 13
  • Q2 03:46 FG NYG (3:46) 9-G.Gano 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NYG 3 – MIA 14
  • Q2 01:55 TD NYG (1:55) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left intended for 17-J.Waddle INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Pinnock (58-B.Okereke) at NYG -2. 27-J.Pinnock for 102 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 9 – MIA 14
  • Q2 00:04 FG MIA (:04) 7-J.Sanders 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. NYG 10 – MIA 17
  • Q3 14:15 TD MIA (14:15) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIA-10-T.Hill, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. NYG 10 – MIA 23
  • Q3 04:31 FG NYG (4:31) 9-G.Gano 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NYG 13 – MIA 24
  • Q3 00:01 TD MIA (:01) (No Huddle) 31-R.Mostert up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – MIA 30
  • Q4 08:56 FG NYG (8:56) 9-G.Gano 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NYG 16 – MIA 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 5 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 31%

    (11:35) 6-J.Gillan punts 38 yards to MIA 11, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 13 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 62%

    (15:00) 9-G.Gano 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 3 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (11:14) 6-J.Gillan punts 49 yards to MIA 6, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-44-N.McCloud. PENALTY on MIA, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 45 - No Play. Miami challenged the too many players on field ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 6-J.Gillan punts 49 yards to MIA 6, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-44-N.McCloud.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 15 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 76%

    (3:46) 9-G.Gano 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 9 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 89%

    (:04) 7-J.Sanders 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 6 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 44%

    (9:25) 6-J.Gillan punts 34 yards to MIA 10, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 6 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 92%

    (4:31) 9-G.Gano 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (14:13) 6-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to MIA 28, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 7 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:50) 16-J.Bailey punts 20 yards to NYG 49, Center-44-B.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 31%

    (11:38) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor scrambles right end to MIA 40 for 9 yards (4-K.Kohou).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 14 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 72%

    (8:56) 9-G.Gano 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (6:33) 16-J.Bailey punts 49 yards to NYG 17, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 20-E.Gray.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 19 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 92%

    (1:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor scrambles up the middle to MIA 17 for 2 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel).