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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 68

New York Giants 13 – Miami Dolphins 31

What Actually Happened

(14:13) 6-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to MIA 28, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 68, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 26, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model