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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 66

Miami Dolphins 31 – New York Giants 16

What Actually Happened

(6:33) 16-J.Bailey punts 49 yards to NYG 17, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 20-E.Gray.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.45 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 66, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 24, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP