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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 15 at the 31

New York Giants 0 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(3:46) 9-G.Gano 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.48 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 31, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 41, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model