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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 19

New York Giants 16 – Miami Dolphins 31

What Actually Happened

(1:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor scrambles up the middle to MIA 17 for 2 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel).

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
What Happened
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.05 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 19, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 29, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.31 EP