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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 49

New York Giants 13 – Miami Dolphins 31

What Actually Happened

(11:38) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor scrambles right end to MIA 40 for 9 yards (4-K.Kohou).

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.98 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.36 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model