Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- ARI offense: -0.123 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
- QB edge to SF: Brock Purdy (SF) +0.267 vs Joshua Dobbs (ARI) -0.044 EPA/dropback
- SF offense: +0.105 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- SF defense: -0.073 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
- SF on 3 more days rest than ARI
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 4
ARI
SF
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:10 TD SF (9:10) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – SF 6
- Q2 14:21 TD SF (14:21) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey right end for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – SF 13
- Q2 08:17 FG ARI (8:17) 5-M.Prater 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney. ARI 3 – SF 14
- Q2 05:29 TD SF (5:29) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 3 – SF 20
- Q2 00:28 TD ARI (:28) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass deep left to 14-Mi.Wilson for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-97-N.Bosa, Defensive Offside, declined. ARI 9 – SF 21
- Q3 04:17 TD ARI (4:17) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass short middle to 14-Mi.Wilson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 16 – SF 21
- Q4 14:25 TD SF (14:25) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 16 – SF 27
- Q4 02:00 TD SF (2:00) 13-B.Purdy up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 16 – SF 34
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 ARI 4th & 7 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(13:34) 16-N.Cooney punts 49 yards to SF 23, Center-46-A.Brewer. 3-R.McCloud pushed ob at SF 38 for 15 yards (85-T.McBride, 43-J.Luketa).
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Q1 ARI 4th & 8 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(4:33) 16-N.Cooney punts 48 yards to SF 16, Center-46-A.Brewer. 3-R.McCloud to SF 25 for 9 yards (0-Z.Pascal; 47-E.Turner).
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Q1 SF 4th & 4 at the 39Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 56%
(:26) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 85-G.Kittle to ARI 30 for 9 yards (22-K.Wallace; 45-D.Gardeck).
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Q2 ARI 4th & 7 at the 45Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 40%
(11:25) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs scrambles left end pushed ob at SF 39 for 6 yards (57-D.Greenlaw). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs scrambles left end pushed ob at SF 37 for 8 yards (57-D.Greenlaw).
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Q2 ARI 4th & 5 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 91%
(8:17) 5-M.Prater 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 2 at the 79Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60%
(3:45) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 47-E.Turner. 47-E.Turner left end to ARI 23 for 2 yards (9-B.Willis, 27-J.Brown).
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Q4 ARI 4th & 18 at the 43Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 45%
(9:22) 16-N.Cooney punts 20 yards to SF 23, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-45-D.Gardeck.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 6 at the 15 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.78 EPp(convert) 34% p(FG) 95%
(:12) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass incomplete short right to 0-Z.Pascal.