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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 15

Arizona Cardinals 16 – San Francisco 49ers 35

What Actually Happened

(:12) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass incomplete short right to 0-Z.Pascal.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +3.13 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 15, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.02 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25, worth +0.02 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.78 EP