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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 20

Arizona Cardinals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(8:17) 5-M.Prater 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.80 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 20, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model