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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 45

Arizona Cardinals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(11:25) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs scrambles left end pushed ob at SF 39 for 6 yards (57-D.Greenlaw). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs scrambles left end pushed ob at SF 37 for 8 yards (57-D.Greenlaw).

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.27 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.18 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.99 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model