Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 64

Arizona Cardinals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(4:33) 16-N.Cooney punts 48 yards to SF 16, Center-46-A.Brewer. 3-R.McCloud to SF 25 for 9 yards (0-Z.Pascal; 47-E.Turner).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.05 EP
65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model