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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 79

Arizona Cardinals 3 – San Francisco 49ers 21

What Actually Happened

(3:45) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 47-E.Turner. 47-E.Turner left end to ARI 23 for 2 yards (9-B.Willis, 27-J.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.79 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.81 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 36, worth -1.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model